Ebook "downturn" a lie

So often stories about the future of printed books begin with the old Mark Twain adage that his death was greatly exaggerated. I feel that way about ebook growth stories, although as you know I am not ebook-centric, in fact believe that ebooks can't survive without print book options. But the Digital Book World daily report, which I love, has this headline: Ebook growth slows. The story goes: "Remember when ebook revenues were growing by triple digits month-over-month? Well, those days are long over. That's the bad news. The good news is that ebooks are still growing at a healthy double-digit clip - and on a much larger base. According to the latest numbers from the Association of American Publishers, ebook revenues were up about 21% in Nov. 2012 versus the same month last year. This is down from Oct. 2012, when ebook sales grew by 41% and from Sept. when they grew 31%. For the year, ebooks are up about 35%. Year-to-date, ebooks comprise nearly 20% of all trade revenues." Whew 21 percent growth. The newspaper industry, that I used to work for, hasn't seen 21 percent growth in more than 30 years. I'll take it. And please note, this growth is on a much larger base than before. Important.

Not the chicken or the egg

Rumor has it that the next iteration in the ebook/print book faceoff is a print book with an embedded chip that has the electronic version, so when you buy the print book you get the electronic version, too. First of all, I love that the two media have been brought together. That's progress. However, I think this combo is backwards. I think people will want to get the ebook first, and read the book that way, and then decide whether to spend the extra money to get the printed book -- personalized for them perhaps, with their choice of cover, and their own dedication. If you pay for the print book and also get the ebook, but then read the ebook first and don't want a print version, you really had no need to have already paid extra for the print book. That overcharges the reader. If you sell the reader the inexpensive ebook first and then make ordering the print book easy, the cost of the print book should be happily paid if the desire is there. This is not an example of the chicken or the egg. It's clear which should come first: the electronic book.

Time flies

As recently as 2007, before Kindle, there were no ebook sales and upwards of 85% of print was sold in stores. Whew, how time flies when you are having fun. What the latest Bowker information has to say, lumping ebooks into “online commerce”, is that 44% of sales are online, 32% through physical retail, and the remainder through book clubs and warehouse clubs (physical retail) and “all other channels”. But they also report that 30% of sales are ebooks, which would mean that they’re only calling 14% of the remaining 70% online. Does that put in perspective how fast the ebook evolution has happened? In the words of The Shatzkin Files, a blog I like to read: "Only a quarter to a half of the sales now — far less for fiction and far more for illustrated books — require a publisher to 'put books on shelves'. And that number is going down."

Epub and print go together

Epub and print go together like peas and carrots, peanut butter and jelly, coffee and cream. Why? Because half the people in the world say they will buy an epub by the end of 2013; which leaves the other half who won't. According to a new survey from free ebook distributor Bookboon of nearly 6,000 Americans conducted in person and through the internet, 49.8% of Americans will purchase an ebook this year. "In the past, Bookboon has put out numbers that are not quite in line with results from other surveys but there is some evidence that suggests this survey is more accurate. In it, 27.1% of Americans report having read an ebook with 22.7% saying they will by the end of 2013," as reported by Digital Book World. Some other interesting findings: - 57.7% of Americans think that 50% or more of their book reading will be ebooks in three years; among current tablet owners, that number is 71.9% - 22.2% of Americans don't plan to start reading ebooks any time in the next three years.

Getting the right experience

One of the most enjoyable aspects of ereaders, is reflowing text. That's when the story or book you are reading automatically fills each screen of your ereader at the size you want, so the text is comfortable to read -- and you only have to turn pages to read the text. From my experience, at that point, the reading brain makes no distinction between perusing the pages of a book and perusing the pages of an ebook. (And the reading brain is very happy.) I was reminded of this today when I went to my local library online and downloaded a book (for a two-week borrowing) to discover that the book was a pdf ebook (from Overdrive) -- in my mind not a real ebook. In other words the pages did not fill my screen. In fact I had to enlarge each page to read the words, and then scroll across each line to read the words. The experience was excruciating. (And I remembered a few years ago, when ebooks were caught in that nightmare state.) In order for a reader to get the right experience an ebook must have reflowable text. In my opinion, any library that is offering pdf ebooks for readers to check out is unconsciously discouraging readers from pursuing this entertainment.

Gifting yourself

Let me clarify. The newest book publishing model -- shortened version -- is ebook to hardback, as in "Fifty Shades of Grey". Yes, "Fifty Shades of Grey" also has all the steps in between: ebook to print on demand book, print on demand book to mass print softcover, mass print softcover (Vintage Books) to mass print hardcover (Random House). But if you shorten that evolution, you've got ebook to hardcover, digital to analog. NOT the usual: Analog to digital. How different (reversed) from the past can you be? First of all launching a major international book (which has sold 65 million copies) as an ebook on an obscure Australian website is pretty unexpected. And then after 18 months of downloading, deciding to print the book and sell that iteration, is surprising. Yes, ebook-to-hardback is way more radical than ebook to print on demand book, which when "Fifty Shades of Grey" was first launched in 2011 was radical enough. How many other authors in this world would like to go from ebook to hardback? Or, more importantly, how many readers in this world would like to go from ebook to hardback? In my opinion, more and more. It's like gifting yourself the memory of a prized experience. It's the newest (and safest, and most likely to succeed) book publishing model.

Ebook incarnation

I'm often asked why I am so intrigued by ebooks. It's very simple; ebooks are the incarnation of the two modern concepts I care about most: personalization and globalization. Ebooks allow every reader to personalize an author's work by marking passages, annotating passges, even changing and adding passages; and ebooks are quickly becoming a global phenomenon. To me, when you put together personalization and globalization you have the modern brew that will engage the world for the long future, and generation after generation of people will embrace and perfect some aspect of the twins. Personalization and globalization together are what created the global economy and the global mess. Banks were able to answer and react to every asset owners' wish and at the same time reach out beyond national boundaries to involve all the world economies. Now come ebooks, using a standardized digital format, well not quite, and standardized ereader devices, well not quite. Just as in the Biblical Tower of Babel, the plan was for ebooks to be globalized using one standard format and one standard device (certainly one channel, the internet), but personalization raised its knarly head and now we are headed toward an endless era of people around the world applying their proprietary cultural instincts to the digital products.